Changes for Ukrainians in the EU: Who will lose the right to protection
Forty-three percent of Ukrainians living abroad plan to return home, while 36% no longer intend to or are leaning toward staying. In total, 5.6 million Ukrainians are living outside the country. In the EU, 4.38 million people from Ukraine hold temporary protection status. EU member states have agreed to extend it through March 4, 2028, along with new conditions for some future applicants. Frontliner examined which Ukrainians will be able to stay in Europe and how many are likely to return to Ukraine.
Nearly 80% of Ukrainians who want to return say they are prepared to do so only once the war has fully ended. Among the other conditions cited by participants in a Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) study were the ability to find well-paid work, a higher standard of living, infrastructure reconstruction, progress fighting corruption, and improvements to the justice system.
Time spent abroad also affects people’s decisions. Ukrainians are increasingly employed in the countries where they’ve settled, their incomes are rising, and their children are attending local schools. According to CES, the employment rate among working-age Ukrainians abroad has reached 71%. Average monthly income per family member rose from 631 euros in 2023 to 1,137 euros by the end of 2025.
Protection extended through 2028
One more year in the EU
In July, EU member states agreed to extend temporary protection through March 4, 2028. As of the end of May, 4.38 million people who had left Ukraine were using the status. It allows legal residence and employment in the EU, access to medical and social assistance, and school enrollment for children.
New applicants will face an additional condition. The EU decided to grant protection to people who have fulfilled their military obligations to Ukraine. This can be confirmed, among other ways, with a document proving lawful departure or release from that obligation. The rule does not apply to Ukrainians who were already using temporary protection in the EU at the time it was introduced.
Europe is preparing for the next status
The year 2028 does not mean an automatic end to legal residence for all Ukrainians. The Council of the EU has recommended that member states create pathways to other residence permits for those who meet the established requirements, based on grounds such as employment, education or family circumstances.
Specific rules will be set by each individual country. As a result, once the shared European mechanism ends, a Ukrainian’s status will increasingly depend on their grounds for residence under each country’s national law. Poland and Czechia have already launched separate mechanisms for this kind of transition.
Who will be allowed to stay
Poland: Three years under CUKR
Poland has introduced the CUKR card for Ukrainians, a three-year residence permit. Ukrainians who meet requirements related to prior residence under UKR status can apply for it. A CUKR holder can work without a separate permit and can also run a business.
This period also counts toward the time required to obtain EU long-term resident status. In other words, for some Ukrainians, CUKR becomes a bridge from a wartime protection mechanism to a standard migration status.
Czechia: Five years for those who qualify
Czechia has created a special long-term residence permit valid for five years. Criteria include a required income level, no outstanding insurance debts, proof of housing, and compliance with other conditions set by the state.
In 2026, more than 56,000 people expressed interest in this permit. Initial screening showed that far from everyone can qualify. In 2025, about 82,000 Ukrainians expressed a wish to obtain the status, and roughly 16,000 met the requirements.
Return is being postponed
2.7 million may stay abroad
CES estimates the number of Ukrainians abroad at 5.6 million. The center’s baseline scenario projects that around 2.7 million people could remain outside Ukraine after the war ends. This, however, is only a preliminary estimate.
Security remains the primary condition for potential returnees. That means even the 43% of Ukrainians who currently say they intend to return would not necessarily translate into a corresponding migration flow immediately after fighting stops.
The numbers abroad will keep falling in 2026
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a further net outflow of about 200,000 people in 2026. According to the NBU’s forecast, net return migration will begin in 2027, totaling around 100,000 people, and could rise to about 500,000 in 2028.
This forecast depends above all on the security situation and the state of Ukraine’s economy. At the same time, Ukrainians have gained nearly another year and a half of guaranteed protection in the EU, and some countries have already opened paths to long-term residency. As a result, the key question is gradually shifting from when temporary protection will end to how many Ukrainians will, by that point, have jobs, housing and a legal way to stay.
