Flamingo, Neptune, and Sapsan: what other missiles could Ukraine use to finish the war?

At the end of summer 2025, photos of the new long-range FP-5 Flamingo missile were released. Reactions were mixed, ranging from excitement to sharp criticism, with some experts questioning the legitimacy of the project. The reputation of its manufacturer, Fire Point, was later undermined by an investigation launched by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Detectives are examining whether the design bureau inflated the cost of long-range drones for a state contract. The company is also linked to Timur Mindich, a figure implicated in a separate corruption case.

The Flamingo is one of the world’s largest ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) systems, with the longest range. To date, five attacks using this weapon have been reported. One recent instance was confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff: in January 2026, a Ukrainian missile illuminated the sky over the Kapustin Yar testing range. The missile struck a target located 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, yet this represents only a third of the Flamingo’s full range potential.

So far, the Flamingo has struggled with accuracy. OSINT analysts, such as CyberBoroshno, claim that its strikes on Kapustin Yar yielded no results. While there was some damage at the testing range, it was caused by drones, not the missile itself.

The most recent confirmed use of the Flamingo came on February 12, 2026. The missiles targeted an ammunition depot near Kotluban, roughly 400 kilometers from Ukraine’s state border. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five out of six missiles were reportedly intercepted by Russian air defenses.

The long-range Flamingo cruise missile is seen as Ukraine’s first step toward a credible deterrent, according to missile technology expert Fabian Hoffmann. Until now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could strike deep into Russia using mostly drones and Neptune missiles. Western missiles such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS have also been used. However, the production of these weapons is quite limited, making the development of Ukraine’s own missile program an urgent priority.

Every day, another Flamingo is added to Ukraine’s missile arsenal. Fire Point has promised to increase annual production to 2,500 missiles. This means Ukraine could strike deep into Russia daily, gradually wearing down its economic and military capabilities. According to Fabian Hoffmann, even the currently reported production rate of 30 missiles per month could already have a significant impact on the course of the war. However, production at Fire Point has slowed due to a Russian strike on one of its manufacturing sites, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported.

There is currently no comprehensive data on the results of the Flamingo’s deployment. Based on assessments from OSINT analysts, the system is still imperfect. Some experts also argue that the Flamingo may be too easy a target for enemy air defenses. Being subsonic and large, it is highly visible on radar. Questions remain about the missile’s long-term prospects. The missile is built around an AI-25TL turbojet engine. According to Fire Point representatives, they purchased thousands of older engines and plan to produce new units in-house going forward.

Ukraine’s missile arsenal

Russia possesses roughly 2,000 strategic missiles and produces about 200 new units each month. To counter the aggressor country, Ukraine would need to reach comparable, or greater capabilities.

Ukraine has limited stocks of American missiles; the most recent reports of ATACMS being used against Russian territory date back to November 2025. Ukraine has yet to receive German Taurus missiles, despite discussions about them lasting nearly three years.

Reliable support has come from allies in the United Kingdom and France: after the U.S. president declined to provide Tomahawks, Ukraine received shipments of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles. The exact number of missiles is unknown, but it should be sufficient for strikes deep into Russia through the end of winter.

Regarding domestically produced weapons, the past two years have seen significant progress. In 2025, the production capacity for long-range systems reached $25 billion, according to the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine report. At the start of the full-scale invasion, the entire defense industry was valued at just $1 billion.

The Flamingo is the longest-range and heaviest missile in Ukraine’s arsenal, however it is only one of several heavy missile development programs. The same company, Fire Point, is also working on two ballistic missiles, the FP-7 and FP-9, which are expected to enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2026.

For the past year and a half, Ukrainian forces have been successfully using so-called “long Neptunes” against targets in Russian territory. This modified version of the anti-ship missile from the Luch Design Bureau can strike targets up to 1,000 kilometers away and carries a warhead weighing approximately 350 kilograms.

In addition, in 2025 Ukraine began serial production of the medium-range ballistic missile Sapsan from the Pivdenne Design Bureau. In January 2026, the United Kingdom announced plans to produce the Nightfall ballistic missile specifically for Ukraine.

“The Flamingo is not a ‘miracle weapon’ that will automatically bring Ukraine victory,” says Fire Point co-owner Denys Shtilerman. At the same time, the missile sends a warning signal to Russia, emphasizes Fabian Hoffmann in an article for the Center for European Policy Analysis. The longer the war continues, the more Ukraine will weaken Russia’s oil and gas industries. That is why Russia is already rushing to discredit Ukraine’s heaviest missile: either by denying its existence or, conversely, blaming it for strikes on residential buildings. The latter claim has already been refuted by OSINT analysts at ASTRA.All of these developments, including the Flamingo, are powerful cards in Ukraine’s hand. They also represent a guarantee for the future – a security Ukraine did not have at the start of the full-scale war, Hoffmann notes.

 

Author: Diana Deliurman

Adapted: Irena Zaburanna

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