Western military aid: what to expect in 2026

The year 2025 became a record one for Ukraine in terms of Western military assistance. Despite growing talk of “war fatigue” and new political constraints, allies pledged around $45 billion in support. At the same time, shifting political moods in key capitals slowed the delivery of part of that aid. The United States, in particular, effectively paused new packages, forcing European partners to look for ways to compensate for the shortfall. Even so, the West plans to continue supporting Ukraine in 2026 through new financial mechanisms, record commitments by European governments and more creative approaches by individual countries. What exactly to expect from Western military assistance next year — in Frontliner’s analysis.

Despite recurring discussions about allies growing tired of the war, last year proved the most productive yet for Western support to Ukraine. At meetings in the Ramstein format, partners said they had collectively agreed to provide around $45 billion in aid during 2025, assuming all pledges are fulfilled. Ukraine’s needs, however, continue to grow. The government has estimated its defense requirements for 2026 at $120 billion and has proposed that allies allocate at least 0.25% of their GDP to support Kyiv. The Baltic states have already reached that level. European countries have taken on greater financial responsibility, partially offsetting the reduced U.S. contribution.

United States: a minimum instead of past scale

In 2025, the U.S. administration largely froze military assistance to Ukraine. Only previously approved deliveries continued, while no new packages were authorized. Washington used the pause as leverage to push Kyiv toward negotiations. Only at the end of the year did Congress include a symbolic $400 million for Ukraine’s weapons needs in the 2026-2027 defense budget, compared with nearly $14 billion discussed under the same program in spring 2024.

The U.S. administration has since avoided using existing aid mechanisms, preferring instead the sale of weapons through European intermediaries. In 2026, most American weapons deliveries to Ukraine are expected to arrive indirectly — through funds financed by other countries to purchase arms from the United States.

Europe: new financial commitments

European allies significantly increased their support in 2025 to compensate for the U.S. pause. At the 32nd meeting of the Contact Group in December, partners announced plans for 2026. Germany unveiled an €11.5 billion package, the largest contribution among all countries, with a focus on air defense, drones and ammunition. Other states also presented sizable commitments, including Norway with roughly $7 billion and the Netherlands with hundreds of millions of euros for high-tech equipment.

Beyond national programs, the EU approved unprecedented long-term financing mechanisms. European leaders endorsed a new €90 billion package for 2026-2027, to be provided to Ukraine as concessional loans backed by the EU’s common budget. Plans to use frozen Russian assets for this purpose have stalled for now. European officials stress that they cannot allow Ukraine to face a financial collapse: without this package, Ukraine risked running out of funds by mid-2026. As a result, Brussels is also discussing alternative sources, including a €140 billion reparations fund backed by Russian assets.

To better coordinate assistance, a so-called “coalition of the willing,” led by Britain and France, was established in 2025, taking on part of the leadership in planning support for Ukraine. Another critical mechanism is the PURL fund — a joint financing tool for purchasing U.S. weapons. In 2026, PURL’s needs are estimated at around $15 billion. Several countries have already announced contributions, allowing continued deliveries of air defense missiles.

United Kingdom: focus on air defense

In 2025, London placed particular emphasis on strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses. The British government announced its largest-ever single-year package, reaching £600 million, directed toward air defense systems. The package is financed from multiple sources, including confiscated Russian assets held in Britain. Officials say support will only grow if the war drags on. Defense Secretary John Healey has stated that if Russian aggression continues, allies will only strengthen their unity and assistance to Ukraine.

Canada: long-term cooperation

Canada significantly increased its military aid to Ukraine in 2025. Since 2022, Ottawa has provided more than 6 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of military assistance. In August 2025, new Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a $2 billion support package during a visit to Kyiv.

Canada has also agreed to jointly produce drones and other military equipment. Ottawa joined the PURL fund, allocating nearly $900 million through the mechanism to purchase critical U.S. weapons, primarily air defense systems.

Ukraine’s expectations for 2026

Ukraine insists that modern long-range weapons and strengthened air defense systems are needed now to change the course of the war. Allies continue to pledge support “for as long as it takes,” but financial constraints remain the main limiting factor. As a result, the search for new funding sources, including the possible use of frozen Russian assets, has become increasingly urgent. For now, Ukraine is relying on already approved aid packages and on increased weapons production by its partners. Whether these efforts will be sufficient should become clear in the first months of 2026.

Adapted: Kateryna Saienko

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Frontliner wishes to acknowledge the financial assistance of the European Union though its Frontline and Investigative Reporting project (FAIR Media Ukraine), implemented by Internews International in partnership with the Media Development Foundation (MDF). Frontliner retains full editorial independence and the information provided here does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union, Internews International or MDF.