By the numbers: Ukraine’s population losses amid war
The full-scale war in Ukraine has dramatically reshaped the country’s demographic landscape. Over two and a half years, the population has declined by at least 10 million. Mass migration, record-high mortality, falling birth rates, and an aging population present a profound challenge to Ukraine’s future. Frontliner examines how the size, structure, and distribution of the population are changing and what the government is doing to preserve human potential.
At the start of 2022, over 40 million people lived in Ukraine (excluding Crimea). By mid-2024, that number had dropped to roughly 35.8 million, with only 31.1 million residing in government-controlled areas. In just two and a half years, the country has lost around 10 million residents. The era when Ukraine’s population exceeded 50 million is now firmly in the past.
Migration
Mass emigration has been the primary driver of population decline. Approximately 5 million Ukrainians now live abroad, mostly in Europe, with the largest numbers in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, and Spain.
The longer the war continues, the fewer migrants plan to return — especially men of conscription age. The government has proposed incentives, from reserving skilled specialists to housing and employment programs, but millions are building lives abroad.
Eastern and southern regions have emptied as millions fled Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. Central and western regions absorbed millions of internally displaced persons but have also seen population losses due to emigration.
War losses and mortality
Exact figures for war-related deaths are unavailable, but tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of civilians have perished. Frontline regions are now home mostly to elderly residents. Mortality has also risen due to a weakened healthcare system, stress, and worsening chronic conditions. In 2023, roughly 495,000 deaths were recorded — about one-third higher than pre-war levels — with 280 deaths for every 100 births.
Birth rates at historic lows
In 2023, only around 180,000 children were born — the lowest figure in modern Ukrainian history. Causes include insecurity, economic hardship, and uncertainty about the future. Children under 18 now make up just 15% of the population, while those over 60 comprise 27%. Ukraine is aging rapidly, and new generations are declining.
A demographic strategy struggling to take hold
At the end of 2024, Ukraine adopted a Demographic Development Strategy through 2040, along with an action plan for 2024-2027. However, the government’s measures have yet to produce noticeable results. Small birth-related payments are quickly eroded by inflation, and infrastructure projects are slow to materialize
Government estimates suggest the population could decline to 29 million by 2041. Recovery is possible — but only under conditions of peace, economic stabilization, and reconstruction. The return of refugees, delayed family planning, and the creation of adequate living conditions could form the foundation for demographic growth.
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Created with the support of the Association of Independent Regional Publishers of Ukraine and Amediastiftelsen as part of the Regional Media Support Hub project. The authors’ views do not necessarily coincide with the official position of the partners.
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